diff --git a/src/core/quote-outcomes.mjs b/src/core/quote-outcomes.mjs
index e5e4519..b0cb78b 100644
--- a/src/core/quote-outcomes.mjs
+++ b/src/core/quote-outcomes.mjs
@@ -56,12 +56,15 @@ export function deriveQuoteOutcomeRecords({
     const expectedDelta = expectedDeltasByQuote.get(submission.quote_id) || null;
     if (!expectedDelta) continue;
 
+    const submittedTs = timestampValue(submission.submitted_at);
+
     const matches = inventoryDeltas.filter((movement) => (
       movementMatchesExpectedDelta({
         movement,
         expectedDelta,
-        submittedAt: submission.submitted_at,
         attributionWindowMs,
+        submittedTs,
+        movementTs: movement.observed_ts,
       })
     ));
     if (matches.length) candidatesByQuote.set(submission.quote_id, matches);
@@ -152,6 +155,7 @@ export function deriveInventoryDeltas({ inventorySnapshots = [], activeAssetIds
     deltas.push({
       movement_id: `${previous.observed_at}->${current.observed_at}`,
       observed_at: current.observed_at,
+      observed_ts: timestampValue(current.observed_at),
       previous_observed_at: previous.observed_at,
       inventory_id: current.inventory_id,
       previous_inventory_id: previous.inventory_id,
@@ -343,21 +347,19 @@ function baseOutcomeRecord({
 function movementMatchesExpectedDelta({
   movement,
   expectedDelta,
-  submittedAt,
+  submittedTs,
+  movementTs,
   attributionWindowMs,
 }) {
-  const submittedTs = timestampValue(submittedAt);
-  const movementTs = timestampValue(movement.observed_at);
   if (!Number.isFinite(submittedTs) || !Number.isFinite(movementTs)) return false;
   if (movementTs < submittedTs) return false;
   if (movementTs - submittedTs > attributionWindowMs) return false;
 
   for (const [assetId, expected] of Object.entries(expectedDelta)) {
-    if (safeBigInt(movement.delta_units?.[assetId]) !== expected) return false;
-  }
-  for (const [assetId, actual] of Object.entries(movement.delta_units || {})) {
-    if (Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(expectedDelta, assetId)) continue;
-    if (safeBigInt(actual) !== 0n) return false;
+    const actual = safeBigInt(movement.delta_units?.[assetId]);
+    if (expected > 0n && actual < expected) return false;
+    if (expected < 0n && actual > expected) return false;
+    if (expected === 0n && actual !== 0n) return false;
   }
 
   return true;
diff --git a/src/lib/postgres.mjs b/src/lib/postgres.mjs
index 55b896c..c5baa21 100644
--- a/src/lib/postgres.mjs
+++ b/src/lib/postgres.mjs
@@ -81,6 +81,7 @@ const REFRESHABLE_INTENT_REQUEST_OUTCOME_STATUSES = [
 export function createPostgresPool({ connectionString }) {
   return new Pool({
     connectionString,
+    max: 30,
   });
 }