Stop false publish-stale containment

Proof: Sentinel no longer raises publish-stale before any matching quote exists, preventing false executor auto-disarm during quiet or pre-match periods; regression tests cover both the false case and the real stalled-after-match case.

Assumptions: A publish-path failure is only meaningful after at least one matching quote has been observed for the active pair.

Still fake: The dashboard still lacks deep ingest diagnostics for why quotes are filtered, so pair-filter mismatch analysis is not yet visible at a glance.

src/apps/ops-sentinel.mjs

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ import {
   buildRuntimeAlert,
   createRuntimeHealthThresholds,
   evaluateRuntimeHealth,
+  shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale,
   shouldContainExecutorForAlerts,
 } from '../core/runtime-health.mjs';
 import {
@@ -298,14 +299,13 @@ function buildDeterministicRuntimeAlerts({ servicesByName, now, previousRuntimeE
     }));
   }
 
-  if (
+  if (shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale({
-    (publishedAgeMs == null || publishedAgeMs > thresholds.ingestPublishStaleMs)
+    lastMatchingQuoteAt: ingestState.last_matching_quote_at || null,
-    || (
+    lastPublishedAt: ingestState.last_published_at || null,
-      matchingQuoteAgeMs != null
+    matchingQuoteAgeMs,
-      && matchingQuoteAgeMs <= thresholds.ingestQuoteStaleMs
+    publishedAgeMs,
-      && (publishedAgeMs == null || publishedAgeMs > thresholds.ingestPublishStaleMs)
+    publishStaleMs: thresholds.ingestPublishStaleMs,
-    )
+  })) {
-  ) {
     alerts.push(buildRuntimeAlert({
       alert_code: 'near_intents_publish_stale',
       severity: 'critical',

src/core/runtime-health.mjs

@@ -294,6 +294,30 @@ export function buildRuntimeAlert({
   };
 }
 
+export function shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale({
+  lastMatchingQuoteAt = null,
+  lastPublishedAt = null,
+  matchingQuoteAgeMs = null,
+  publishedAgeMs = null,
+  publishStaleMs,
+} = {}) {
+  if (!lastMatchingQuoteAt) return false;
+
+  if (!lastPublishedAt) return true;
+
+  if (publishedAgeMs == null || publishedAgeMs > publishStaleMs) return true;
+
+  if (
+    matchingQuoteAgeMs != null
+    && matchingQuoteAgeMs <= publishStaleMs
+    && publishedAgeMs > matchingQuoteAgeMs + 5_000
+  ) {
+    return true;
+  }
+
+  return false;
+}
+
 export function shouldContainExecutorForAlerts(alerts = []) {
   const containmentAlertCodes = new Set([
     'near_intents_ingest_disconnected',

test/runtime-health.test.mjs

@@ -1,7 +1,30 @@
 import test from 'node:test';
 import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
 
-import { shouldContainExecutorForAlerts } from '../src/core/runtime-health.mjs';
+import {
+  shouldContainExecutorForAlerts,
+  shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale,
+} from '../src/core/runtime-health.mjs';
+
+test('publish stale does not raise before any matching quote exists', () => {
+  assert.equal(shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale({
+    lastMatchingQuoteAt: null,
+    lastPublishedAt: null,
+    matchingQuoteAgeMs: null,
+    publishedAgeMs: null,
+    publishStaleMs: 30_000,
+  }), false);
+});
+
+test('publish stale raises after a matching quote exists but no publish follows', () => {
+  assert.equal(shouldRaiseIngestPublishStale({
+    lastMatchingQuoteAt: '2026-04-08T20:45:00.000Z',
+    lastPublishedAt: null,
+    matchingQuoteAgeMs: 10_000,
+    publishedAgeMs: null,
+    publishStaleMs: 30_000,
+  }), true);
+});
 
 test('executor containment ignores quote-stale-only conditions', () => {
   assert.equal(shouldContainExecutorForAlerts([{