Put real trade outcomes first

Proof: Operator dashboard now starts from successful trades with linked outcome evidence, keeps submitted-only rows in awaiting/no-trade buckets, and explains why recent quotes are not proven asset-changing trades.

Assumptions: Until durable terminal outcome and settlement attribution are implemented, successful trade count must remain zero for submitted-only evidence.

Still fake: Per-quote terminal outcome and settled asset delta plumbing is still not implemented; the page now exposes that absence directly instead of hiding it behind submission counts.

src/core/operator-dashboard.mjs

@@ -1016,6 +1016,7 @@ function buildStrategySummary({
     recentExecutionResults,
     limit: 20,
   });
+  const tradeFunnel = buildTradeFunnelSummary(lifecycleRows);
 
   return {
     strategy_state: {
@@ -1028,6 +1029,7 @@ function buildStrategySummary({
         ? recentDecisions
         : [...durableDecisionsById.values()].slice(0, 20),
       recent_lifecycle_rows: lifecycleRows,
+      trade_funnel: tradeFunnel,
       skipped_counts: strategyState.skipped_counts || {},
       durable_control_state: strategyState.durable_control_state || null,
     },
@@ -1053,6 +1055,52 @@ function buildStrategySummary({
   };
 }
 
+function buildTradeFunnelSummary(lifecycleRows = []) {
+  const counts = {
+    observed: 0,
+    rejected: 0,
+    blocked: 0,
+    submitted: 0,
+    awaiting_outcome: 0,
+    failed: 0,
+    not_filled: 0,
+    completed: 0,
+  };
+
+  const successfulTrades = [];
+  const unresolvedSubmissions = [];
+  const noTradeRows = [];
+
+  for (const row of lifecycleRows || []) {
+    if (Object.hasOwn(counts, row.lifecycle_state)) {
+      counts[row.lifecycle_state] += 1;
+    }
+
+    if (row.lifecycle_state === 'completed') {
+      successfulTrades.push(row);
+    } else if (['submitted', 'awaiting_outcome'].includes(row.lifecycle_state)) {
+      unresolvedSubmissions.push(row);
+      noTradeRows.push(row);
+    } else if (['observed', 'evaluated', 'command_emitted', 'rejected', 'blocked', 'failed', 'not_filled'].includes(row.lifecycle_state)) {
+      noTradeRows.push(row);
+    }
+  }
+
+  return {
+    successful_trade_count: successfulTrades.length,
+    unresolved_submission_count: unresolvedSubmissions.length,
+    no_trade_count: noTradeRows.length,
+    successful_trades: successfulTrades,
+    unresolved_submissions: unresolvedSubmissions,
+    no_trade_rows: noTradeRows,
+    counts,
+    caveat:
+      successfulTrades.length > 0
+        ? 'Successful trades require durable terminal outcome evidence.'
+        : 'No quote currently has linked terminal outcome and settled inventory evidence, so there are no successful trades to show yet.',
+  };
+}
+
 function buildSystemSummary({ servicesByName, activeAlerts, recentAlerts }) {
   const historyWriterState = servicesByName['history-writer']?.state || {};
   void activeAlerts;

src/operator-dashboard/static/lib/submissionCopy.js

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 export const SUBMISSION_COPY = {
   statusTileLabel: 'Submissions',
-  statusTileSubtitle: 'Successful quote-response submissions from durable history',
+  statusTileSubtitle: 'Quote responses accepted by the relay; not completed trades',
   statusTileValueSuffix: 'submissions',
   lastStatusTileLabel: 'Last Submission',
   recentMetricLabel: 'Recent submissions',

src/operator-dashboard/static/pages/StrategyPage.jsx

@@ -69,7 +69,50 @@ function LifecycleTable({ items }) {
   );
 }
 
+function SuccessfulTradesTable({ items }) {
+  if (!items?.length) {
+    return (
+      <EmptyState>
+        No successful trades with linked settlement evidence yet. A submitted quote response is not counted here until a durable terminal outcome and settled asset movement are linked to the quote.
+      </EmptyState>
+    );
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <TableFrame>
+      <table className="decision-table lifecycle-table">
+        <thead>
+          <tr>
+            <th>Completed at</th>
+            <th>Pair</th>
+            <th>Trace</th>
+            <th>Outcome</th>
+            <th>Settlement</th>
+          </tr>
+        </thead>
+        <tbody>
+          {items.map((item, index) => (
+            <tr key={`${item.quote_id || item.command_id || item.latest_stage_at || index}`}>
+              <td>{formatTimestamp(item.latest_stage_at)}</td>
+              <td className="mono truncate-cell" title={item.pair || ''}>{truncateMiddle(item.pair || '', 32)}</td>
+              <td>
+                <IdentifierRow label="Quote" value={item.quote_id} />
+                <IdentifierRow label="Command" value={item.command_id} />
+              </td>
+              <td>{item.reason_text}</td>
+              <td>Linked asset delta not exposed yet</td>
+            </tr>
+          ))}
+        </tbody>
+      </table>
+    </TableFrame>
+  );
+}
+
 export default function StrategyPage({ strategy }) {
+  const funnel = strategy.strategy_state.trade_funnel || {};
+  const counts = funnel.counts || {};
+
   return (
     <>
       <section className="panel">
@@ -78,28 +121,44 @@ export default function StrategyPage({ strategy }) {
             <div className="eyebrow">Trading state</div>
             <h2>Strategy and executor</h2>
             <div className="panel-subtitle">
-              This page shows the strongest durable claim for each recent quote, from strategy evaluation through executor submission evidence.
+              This page starts with real trades. Everything else explains why a quote did not become a proven asset-changing trade.
             </div>
           </div>
         </div>
         <div className="metric-grid">
+          <MetricCard label="Successful trades" meta="Requires linked terminal outcome and settlement" value={String(funnel.successful_trade_count || 0)} />
+          <MetricCard label="Awaiting outcome" meta="Submitted, no durable terminal result yet" value={String(funnel.unresolved_submission_count || 0)} />
+          <MetricCard label="No-trade rows" meta="Filtered, rejected, blocked, failed, or unresolved" value={String(funnel.no_trade_count || 0)} />
           <MetricCard label="Strategy armed" meta={`Paused ${formatBoolean(strategy.strategy_state.paused)}`} value={formatBoolean(strategy.strategy_state.armed)} />
-          <MetricCard label="Threshold %" meta="Current gross threshold" value={strategy.strategy_state.threshold_pct ?? 'Unavailable'} />
-          <MetricCard label="Max notional EURe" meta="Current cap" value={strategy.strategy_state.max_notional_eure ?? 'Unavailable'} />
           <MetricCard label="Executor armed" meta={`Paused ${formatBoolean(strategy.executor_state.paused)}`} value={formatBoolean(strategy.executor_state.armed)} />
-          <MetricCard label="Executor in flight" meta={`Handled ${strategy.executor_state.completed_count || 0}`} value={String(strategy.executor_state.in_flight_count || 0)} />
           <MetricCard label="Signer registered" meta={strategy.executor_state.account_id || ''} value={formatBoolean(strategy.executor_state.signer_registered)} />
         </div>
       </section>
 
+      <section className="panel">
+        <div className="panel-head">
+          <div>
+            <div className="eyebrow">Successful trades</div>
+            <h3>Trades with proven asset movement</h3>
+            <div className="panel-subtitle">{funnel.caveat}</div>
+          </div>
+          <div className="pills">
+            <Pill label={`${counts.completed || 0} completed`} stateLabel={(counts.completed || 0) > 0 ? 'healthy' : 'unknown'} />
+            <Pill label={`${counts.not_filled || 0} not filled`} stateLabel={(counts.not_filled || 0) > 0 ? 'warning' : 'unknown'} />
+            <Pill label={`${counts.submitted || 0} submitted only`} stateLabel={(counts.submitted || 0) > 0 ? 'info' : 'unknown'} />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <SuccessfulTradesTable items={funnel.successful_trades} />
+      </section>
+
       <section className="strategy-layout">
         <div className="panel">
           <div className="panel-head">
             <div>
-              <div className="eyebrow">Lifecycle truth</div>
-              <h3>Recent quote decisions and execution evidence</h3>
+              <div className="eyebrow">Why quotes are not trades</div>
+              <h3>Recent quote outcomes and blockers</h3>
               <div className="panel-subtitle">
-                Strategy rejection, executor blocking, submission failure, and submission success are separated. Submission never implies trade completion or realized asset movement.
+                Each row answers why the quote was filtered, rejected, blocked, submitted without outcome, failed, not filled, or completed. Submission still never means asset movement.
               </div>
             </div>
           </div>

test/operator-dashboard.test.mjs

@@ -584,9 +584,44 @@ test('bootstrap normalizes actionable decision vocabulary before exposing it to
   assert.equal(bootstrap.funds.submission_ledger.items[0].decision_reason, 'strategy_approved');
   assert.equal(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.recent_decisions[0].decision, 'approved');
   assert.equal(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.recent_lifecycle_rows[0].reason_code, 'quote_response_ok');
+  assert.equal(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.trade_funnel.successful_trade_count, 0);
+  assert.equal(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.trade_funnel.unresolved_submission_count, 1);
+  assert.equal(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.trade_funnel.counts.submitted, 1);
+  assert.match(bootstrap.strategy.strategy_state.trade_funnel.caveat, /No quote currently has linked terminal outcome/);
   assert.doesNotMatch(JSON.stringify(bootstrap), /Actionable/);
 });
 
+test('completed lifecycle evidence is the only source of successful trade rows', () => {
+  const rows = deriveQuoteLifecycleRows({
+    recentExecutionResults: [
+      {
+        command_id: 'cmd-submitted',
+        quote_id: 'quote-submitted',
+        result_at: '2026-04-09T09:00:00.000Z',
+        status: 'submitted',
+        result_code: 'quote_response_ok',
+      },
+      {
+        command_id: 'cmd-completed',
+        quote_id: 'quote-completed',
+        result_at: '2026-04-09T09:01:00.000Z',
+        status: 'submitted',
+        result_code: 'quote_response_ok',
+        outcome_status: 'completed',
+        outcome_reason: 'settled',
+      },
+    ],
+  });
+
+  const completed = rows.filter((row) => row.lifecycle_state === 'completed');
+  const submitted = rows.filter((row) => row.lifecycle_state === 'submitted');
+
+  assert.equal(completed.length, 1);
+  assert.equal(completed[0].quote_id, 'quote-completed');
+  assert.equal(submitted.length, 1);
+  assert.equal(submitted[0].quote_id, 'quote-submitted');
+});
+
 test('system service state ignores sentinel alert severity and keeps alert surfaces empty', () => {
   const config = buildConfig();
   const bootstrap = buildDashboardBootstrap({