Plan turn: execution outcome truth and settled attribution

Proof: Open the next implementation turn focused on durable downstream outcome linkage and settled inventory attribution for executed quotes.
Assumptions: I017 and I018 belong to one coherent proof topic for the active NEAR Intents BTC/EURe path.
Still fake: Planning defines the next truth gap and validation target, but no downstream outcome or settlement attribution implementation exists yet.

ARCHIVE.md

@@ -26,3 +26,4 @@ Legacy note:
 - 2026-04-07: opened implementation turn `cow-protocol-intent-based-venue-integration` from backlog items I019.
 - 2026-04-08: opened implementation turn `runtime-health-sentinel-alert-routing-and-anomaly-detection` from backlog items I020.
 - 2026-04-08: opened implementation turn `quote-lifecycle-truth-and-execution-explanation` from backlog items I021.
+- 2026-04-09: opened implementation turn `execution-outcome-truth-and-settled-attribution` from backlog items I017, I018.

BACKLOG.md

@@ -22,8 +22,6 @@ Rules:
 
 - [I015] (soon) Benchmark-aware strategy thresholds and inventory-skewed fees: compare live inventory against deposit-time hold and target BTC/EURe mix before quoting away preferred inventory. tags=strategy,inventory,pnl
 - [I016] (soon) Treasury cashflow and fee ledger: durably record deposits, withdrawals, bridge or network costs, and other non-trade cashflows so dashboard profit can move from mark-to-market to true net PnL. tags=pnl,fees,treasury
-- [I017] (soon) Per-trade realized attribution: link each successful trade to actual settled inventory deltas and attributable costs so the system can report realized net contribution per trade instead of only expected edge. tags=trades,pnl,settlement
-- [I018] (later) Quote-to-outcome and markout analytics: link quote, response, decision, execution result, and settlement, then store later reference-price markouts to measure adverse selection and quote quality. tags=quotes,analytics,markout
 ## Research Candidates
 - [R001] Compare Kraken and CoinGecko drift and freshness for the assets needed to price the active pair.
 - [R002] Test whether the active pair's implied rate diverges from external reference prices enough to justify execution after a simple 2% gross threshold.

IMPLEMENTATION.md

@@ -1,5 +1,174 @@
-# Implementation Turn
+# Implementation Turn: execution outcome truth and settled attribution
 
-Status: idle
+Status: open
+Opened: 2026-04-09
 
-No approved implementation turn is active yet.
+## Goal
+Make the live BTC/EURe quote path more real by durably linking submission, downstream outcome, and settled inventory attribution so the dashboard can distinguish completion from submission and show real post-trade movement where available.
+
+## Selected backlog items
+- [I017] Per-trade realized attribution: link each successful trade to actual settled inventory deltas and attributable costs so the system can report realized net contribution per trade instead of only expected edge.
+- [I018] Quote-to-outcome and markout analytics: link quote, response, decision, execution result, and settlement, then store later reference-price markouts to measure adverse selection and quote quality.
+
+## Design rules
+- Treat downstream outcome and settlement truth as part of the same shared evidence path, not separate dashboard decoration.
+- Preserve the current turn’s semantic boundary: submission is still non-terminal.
+- Store explicit linkage and attribution records instead of recomputing ad hoc joins differently across pages.
+- If a linkage is heuristic, store the heuristic and expose uncertainty.
+- Keep the first implementation narrow to the active pair and current venue.
+
+## Problem statement for this turn
+The repository now explains why a quote was rejected, blocked, or submitted, but it still does not fully explain what happened after submission:
+- terminal outcome truth is absent or disconnected
+- recent submission tables are still quote-term oriented rather than settlement oriented
+- completed and realized labels cannot yet be proven from repo-owned durable records
+- later analytics such as markout and realized contribution have no canonical per-quote linkage record
+
+This turn must therefore improve:
+- downstream outcome ingestion or linkage
+- quote-to-outcome storage
+- settlement attribution storage
+- operator rendering of completed versus submission-only rows
+
+## Required evidence model
+Add one repo-owned quote outcome and attribution model with at least:
+- `quote_id`
+- `decision_id`
+- `command_id`
+- `execution_result_status`
+- `outcome_status`
+- `outcome_observed_at`
+- `outcome_source`
+- `attribution_status`
+- `attributed_inventory_delta`
+- `attribution_method`
+- `markout_reference_price` where implemented
+
+Suggested vocabulary:
+- outcome states:
+  - `submitted`
+  - `awaiting_outcome`
+  - `not_filled`
+  - `completed`
+- attribution states:
+  - `unattributed`
+  - `heuristic_match`
+  - `linked_settlement`
+
+## Backend changes
+
+### 1. Add durable outcome linkage
+- inspect available downstream event sources, solver relay data, inventory movement evidence, and existing history tables
+- add a durable record or derived snapshot that links a submitted quote to later terminal outcome when possible
+- preserve source timestamps and raw evidence pointers
+
+### 2. Add durable settlement attribution
+- link completed quote outcomes to later inventory movement for the active assets
+- store both raw units and formatted operator values
+- track whether the attribution is exact or heuristic
+- do not report net realized contribution unless costs are explicitly present
+
+### 3. Extend dashboard bootstrap models
+- expose recent quote outcome rows with terminal evidence where available
+- expose settled attribution separately from submitted quote terms
+- ensure summary metrics count completed outcomes and submission-only rows separately
+
+### 4. Prepare markout support on the same linkage path
+- if implemented in this turn, compute later reference-price markout from the linked quote or completion timestamp
+- store it in a way that cannot be confused with realized settlement contribution
+
+## UI changes
+
+### Strategy page
+- extend lifecycle rows so submitted paths can become `Awaiting outcome`, `Not filled`, or `Completed`
+- show linked outcome reason and settlement attribution state
+- keep quote, decision, and command trace ids visible
+
+### Funds page
+- separate:
+  - recent submission terms
+  - recent settled attribution
+  - completed outcome ledger
+- if no settled attribution exists yet for a completed row, say that plainly
+
+### Summary language
+- introduce distinct labels for:
+  - recent submissions
+  - recent completed outcomes
+  - recent settled attributions
+- never reuse one metric for all three concepts
+
+## Edge cases
+- submitted row with no later evidence:
+  render as `Submitted` or `Awaiting outcome`
+- explicit expiry or non-fill evidence:
+  render as `Not filled`
+- completed outcome with no attributable inventory delta yet:
+  render completion truthfully, but mark attribution as missing
+- inventory movement with no unambiguous quote match:
+  keep unattributed and do not silently assign
+- multiple near-simultaneous quotes in the same direction:
+  require explicit or recorded heuristic linkage before claiming settlement
+
+## Concrete implementation order
+
+### Phase 1. Discover and define outcome sources
+- inspect current relay, executor, and inventory evidence
+- document what fields can carry downstream outcome and settlement linkage
+- define exact versus heuristic attribution rules
+
+### Phase 2. Implement durable outcome and attribution records
+- add storage or derived records for linked outcomes
+- add storage or derived records for settlement attribution
+- preserve raw references and timestamps
+
+### Phase 3. Update dashboard aggregation
+- join recent lifecycle rows to outcome and attribution records
+- split summary metrics and ledgers by evidence strength
+- keep submission-only rows clearly non-terminal
+
+### Phase 4. Validate on live data
+- prove at least one recent row remains submission-only
+- prove blocked and rejected rows remain distinct
+- prove a completed or non-fill row appears only with durable linked evidence
+- prove settled attribution is shown only when actual linked movement exists
+
+## Test plan
+- unit tests for outcome linkage:
+  - submitted with no outcome
+  - submitted with non-fill outcome
+  - submitted with completed outcome
+- unit tests for attribution:
+  - completed with linked settlement
+  - completed without settlement yet
+  - ambiguous movement remains unattributed
+- negative semantic tests:
+  - submission-only rows must not render completion
+  - markout must not be labeled realized
+  - quote terms must not be labeled settled asset delta
+- dashboard bootstrap tests for:
+  - separated summary metrics
+  - completed rows carrying explicit outcome evidence
+  - unattributed rows staying plainly unattributed
+
+## Validation checklist against the proof
+- recent rows separate submitted, awaiting, not-filled, and completed where evidence exists
+- completed rows show explicit outcome linkage
+- settled attribution is visible and clearly sourced
+- submission-only rows still do not claim completion or realized movement
+- remaining uncertainty is named plainly
+
+## Failure modes to plan for
+- linking the wrong inventory movement to a quote
+- mistaking inventory rebalance or treasury movement for trade settlement
+- rendering completed from incomplete venue evidence
+- blending markout and realized attribution into one metric
+- introducing hidden heuristics without storing them
+
+## Truth review checklist for this turn
+For every outcome or attribution field:
+- what exact durable event or snapshot backs it
+- how is the quote linked to it
+- is the linkage exact or heuristic
+- what wording would overclaim certainty
+- what regression test prevents that overclaim from returning

PROOF.md

@@ -1,5 +1,138 @@
-# Implementation Proof
+# Implementation Proof: execution outcome truth and settled attribution
 
-Status: idle
+Status: open
+Opened: 2026-04-09
 
-No approved implementation proof is active yet.
+## Target outcome
+This turn proves that `unrip` can move recent quote rows past submission-only evidence and into durable downstream outcome truth.
+
+For the live NEAR Intents BTC/EURe system, the operator must be able to answer:
+- was the quote merely submitted
+- did the venue later complete or not fill it
+- what settled inventory delta, if any, was actually observed afterward
+- what part of the post-trade change is still inferred versus durably linked
+
+## Why this is a meaningful architecture test
+The previous turn fixed an overclaiming dashboard, but it also exposed the next hard truth gap:
+- `submitted` is now shown truthfully as non-terminal evidence
+- downstream completion and non-fill states are still mostly absent from durable repo-owned data
+- recent asset-term tables still describe submitted quote terms, not settled inventory truth
+- realized attribution is still fake because quote response success is not the same thing as completed asset movement
+
+That means the system is now honest about the gap, but the gap still exists. This turn is where the shared history path must become more real again.
+
+## Hypothesis
+`unrip` becomes materially more trustworthy if it durably links:
+- quote
+- strategy decision
+- execute command
+- executor submission result
+- downstream venue or relay outcome where available
+- later settled inventory deltas attributable to that quote
+
+The turn passes only if the operator can distinguish submission from later outcome and can inspect a recent completed path with explicit settled attribution instead of implied completion.
+
+## Scope
+- [I017] Per-trade realized attribution: link each successful trade to actual settled inventory deltas and attributable costs so the system can report realized net contribution per trade instead of only expected edge.
+- [I018] Quote-to-outcome and markout analytics: link quote, response, decision, execution result, and settlement, then store later reference-price markouts to measure adverse selection and quote quality.
+- Focus on the active NEAR Intents BTC/EURe venue and the repo-owned path already in production.
+- Cover recent rows first; historical backfill is secondary unless required to prove the live path.
+
+## Assumptions
+- The venue or relay emits enough downstream identifiers or status surfaces to link at least some submitted quotes to later terminal outcomes.
+- Inventory snapshots and durable history can support quote-to-settlement attribution for the active pair, even if the first version uses a narrow matching heuristic.
+- Some rows will still remain unattributed or partially inferred; the UI and stored records must say that plainly.
+- This turn should prioritize truthful linkage and settlement evidence over broad analytics polish.
+
+## Turn-shaping rules
+- `submitted` remains non-terminal evidence.
+- `completed`, `not filled`, `settled`, `realized`, and `asset delta` are forbidden unless backed by a durable linked record representing that fact.
+- If settlement attribution is heuristic rather than exact, the stored attribution record and operator surface must say so explicitly.
+- Do not build a broad analytics suite before the quote-to-outcome path is durably linked.
+- Prefer one repo-owned outcome and attribution model reused by storage, dashboard, and later analytics.
+
+## Non-goals
+- No new venue integration.
+- No generalized PnL accounting for all treasury cashflows.
+- No broad historical backfill project unless needed to prove current-path linkage.
+- No strategy changes beyond what is required to preserve truthful lifecycle and attribution semantics.
+
+## Required operator behavior
+
+### Outcome truth
+For a recent submitted quote, the dashboard must be able to render one of:
+- `Submitted`
+- `Awaiting outcome`
+- `Not filled`
+- `Completed`
+
+The label must be driven by the strongest durable evidence currently stored.
+
+### Settlement truth
+For a recent completed quote, the operator must be able to inspect:
+- quote id
+- decision id
+- command id
+- executor result id or submission timestamp
+- linked terminal outcome evidence
+- linked settled asset delta or explicitly missing settled delta
+
+### Attribution truth
+If the system reports realized contribution, it must be derived from:
+- linked settled asset movement
+- explicit attributable costs where available
+
+If costs or full settlement are missing, the system must not claim net realized truth.
+
+### Markout truth
+If markout is stored for completed or submitted rows, it must:
+- be clearly labeled as later reference-price comparison
+- remain separate from realized settlement attribution
+
+## Semantic invariants
+The implementation and tests must enforce at least:
+- `submitted != completed`
+- `completed` requires linked terminal outcome evidence
+- settled asset delta requires linked settlement evidence, not quote terms
+- markout is not realized PnL
+- unattributed inventory movement must not be silently assigned to a quote
+
+## Definition of done
+- A durable quote outcome link exists from submission to later outcome where available.
+- The repo stores an explicit per-quote outcome or attribution record for the active path.
+- The dashboard can show at least one recent path as `Completed` only when durable linked evidence supports it.
+- The dashboard can show non-fill or still-awaiting paths truthfully where that evidence exists.
+- Recent settled asset delta or explicit lack of attribution is visible per completed row.
+- Submission-term tables and summaries do not overclaim settled truth.
+- Regression tests cover the negative semantic boundaries above.
+
+## Validation evidence required
+- direct evidence from deployed dashboard or bootstrap payload that recent rows separate `Submitted`, `Blocked`, `Rejected`, `Not filled`, and `Completed` when the evidence exists
+- direct evidence that a completed row shows linked settled attribution rather than quote terms alone
+- direct evidence that a submission-only row still does not claim completion or realized asset movement
+- automated test evidence for quote-to-outcome linkage
+- automated test evidence for settlement attribution boundaries
+
+## Failure conditions
+- the system still cannot represent downstream terminal outcome beyond submission
+- any UI or backend surface claims completion from submission-only evidence
+- settled asset delta is still derived from quoted terms rather than linked settlement evidence
+- markout or later reference comparison is presented as realized PnL
+- outcome attribution silently guesses across ambiguous rows without recording uncertainty
+
+## Current real before this turn
+- quote, decision, command, and execution submission result are durable
+- the dashboard now renders those stages truthfully
+- submission counts and recent submission terms are constrained to submission evidence
+
+## Deliberately not built by this proof
+- full treasury fee ledger
+- generalized tax or accounting treatment
+- multi-venue settlement harmonization
+
+## Prevention requirements for this proof
+- For every new `Completed`, `Not filled`, or realized attribution label:
+  - what exact durable record backs it
+  - what linkage key or heuristic connects it to the quote
+  - what uncertainty remains
+  - what regression test prevents future overclaiming